
From Huffington Post:
Sticking a Wrench in the Gearbox
Maybe, just maybe, a bunch of delegates to the Democratic Convention in Denver will change their minds at the last minute. Maybe there is an outside chance that between now and the last week of August a critical mass will decide that Barack Obama is not their guy — that, to the surprise of one and all, Hillary Rodham Clinton is to be the 2008 nominee after all.
That is the thinking behind a small but determined band of Hillary backers, some of whom have formed a 527 fundraising committee that has already run one $9,700 ad in the Chicago Tribune, and plans more in the weeks to come.
The Denver Group: Keeping the Democratic Party democratic, created by Georgetown Law professor Heidi Li Feldman and freelance advertising man Marc Rubin, ran an ad in Friday’s Chicago Tribune declaring:
“Senator Clinton’s name must be put in nomination. Her supporters must be allowed to make speeches on her behalf of her candidacy. There must be an honest roll call vote, not a symbolic one, so superdelegates can cast their votes honestly, for either candidate, as their judgment, conscience and democratic principles dictate.”
Feldman told the Huffington Post that the goal of the Denver Group “is to insure substantive and legitimate selection of the nominee.” DNC chairman and other party leaders “should be taking responsibility for making sure it’s a legitimate procedure. They cannot demand that people simply unify around either one of them.”
Feldman argued that it is entirely conceivable that an open vote could produce a Clinton victory. “Then, the decision comes down to the superdelegates. I have no Idea what they are going to do six weeks from now.”
Feldman declined to say how much the group has raised, or who the donors are – “We can’t disclose that information” – although he acknowledged that the 527 organization will soon have to report that data to the IRS. She said the largest donation so far is $5,000. (full article)
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Timing is everything…
From the Carpetbagger:
Newsweek Poll has Obama’s lead dropping from 15 to 3:
I wasn’t especially excited when Newsweek said Barack Obama enjoyed a 15-point lead over John McCain three weeks ago, and I’m not especially discouraged now that Newsweek shows Obama leading by three now.
A month after emerging victorious from the bruising Democratic nominating contest, some of Barack Obama’s glow may be fading. In the latest NEWSWEEK Poll, the Illinois senator leads Republican nominee John McCain by just 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. The statistical dead heat is a marked change from last month’s NEWSWEEK Poll, where Obama led McCain by 15 points, 51 percent to 36 percent.
Obama’s rapid drop comes at a strategically challenging moment for the Democratic candidate. Having vanquished Hillary Clinton in early June, Obama quickly went about repositioning himself for a general-election audience — an unpleasant task for any nominee emerging from the pander-heavy primary contests and particularly for a candidate who’d slogged through a vigorous primary challenge in most every contest from January until June. Obama’s reversal on FISA legislation, his support of faith-based initiatives and his decision to opt out of the campaign public-financing system left him open to charges he was a flip-flopper. In the new poll, 53 percent of voters (and 50 percent of former Hillary Clinton supporters) believe that Obama has changed his position on key issues in order to gain political advantage.
The news wasn’t all bad for Obama. The same poll showed that 61% of his backers support him “strongly,” while for McCain, the numbers are reversed — 61% of his backers don’t support him “strongly.”
The number to keep an eye on, though, was the switch among independents: “In the new poll, McCain leads Obama among independents 41 percent to 34 percent, with 25 percent favoring neither candidate. In June’s NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama bested McCain among independent voters, 48 percent to 36 percent.”
This, frankly, seems hard to believe. I know the media/McCain attacks about Obama’s alleged “flip-flops” have been an aggressive part of the discourse, but it’s just not realistic to think there’s been this big a swing among independents in such a short time.
Indeed, if the Newsweek poll felt like an outlier in June because Obama’s lead appeared too big, this latest Newsweek poll also feels like an outlier because his lead is too small. (full article)