Democratic Party Suicide Watch: Rachel Maddow has me worried

I listen to Rachel Maddow on her Air America podcast. She’s worried…so am I.

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From The May 21st Rachel Maddow Show:

Clinton To The Convention?:

When the Democratic primary calendar ends on June 3rd, Senator Obama will have more delegates than Senator Clinton.

On what grounds could a candidate who is behind at the end of a race avoid conceding that he or she has been beaten? On the grounds that the race really isn’t over!

After the primary calendar has ended, Clinton’s campaign can only justify or explain her staying in the race if she makes the case that the Democratic Party still has not chosen a nominee conclusively. Clinton needs an argument that the game should go into extra innings. Overtime. Bonus round. Detention. Whatever. Clinton has now found that argument — she says she will not stop campaigning until the issue of the Florida and Michigan delegates is settled to her satisfaction.

The Florida/Michigan issue get settled, of course, by the Democrats’ Rules and Bylaws Committee… unless of course that committee’s decision gets appealed to the Credentials Committee… unless of course that decision, too, gets appealed… to the floor of the convention.

Do you see where this is going? If there is an open, unresolved procedural issue involving the Florida and Michigan delegations, Senator Clinton will be able to cite that as her justification for staying in the race until the convention even though she is not ahead in the nomination contest at the end of the primary calendar.

If she can ensure that the Florida and Michigan issue stays unresolved until the convention (and by appealing it every step of the way, I don’t see how that can be avoided), then Clinton stays in the race until the convention. Staying in until the convention buys her three more months of campaign time, three more months to make her case to the party and the country, three more months for some potential political unfortunateness to befall Senator Obama.

And it keeps the race for the Democratic nomination open, at least theoretically, for Senator Clinton to win instead of Senator Obama.

How could Clinton win at the convention? Seems to me that three months is a long time in this race, and if it gets that far, anything could happen.

Pffft! You say. Scoff.

Listen: you don’t need a vivid political imagination to recognize that if what you really want is to be President of the United States — a slim chance of becoming President (a fight at the convention) is better than no chance of becoming President (because you dropped out)…

…If Clinton fights to stay in until the convention — which seems utterly plausible to me — then I believe the Democratic Party’s nominee (Obama or Clinton) will lose the general election to John McCain. This last point is of course infinitely debatable — but my take is that in November, the party that’s had a nominee since February/March, beats the party that only got a nominee the last week in August. (full article here)

Clinton win in West Va. /Bluegrass States and Yellow Dog Democrats

From the BBC:

If last week’s victory was a squeak, this week’s was a roar. A two-to-one win over Barack Obama in a state which – as Senator Clinton has frequently reminded her supporters – no successful Democratic candidate for the White House has lost in nearly a century. And that includes, of course, her husband, Bill.

Her most recent reminder came in a victory speech that was more defiant in tone than the one she had given in Indianapolis last week.

Standing alone on stage, she used the kind of metaphors that might be expected in the Mountain State. The people of West Virginia, she said, knew about “the rough roads to the top of the mountain”.

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For me last night, it was the phone ringing and a call from a friend about something completely different. We had been chatting it up for a while, and I finally said sheepishly…”Listen…sorry about the ‘end game’ posts I’ve been putting on the blog about Hillary”. She was in fact one of the few people I had told I was voting for Clinton in the PA. primary…she had voted for Hillary also. She laughed and said although she cringed when she read them, she knew that I was all about the Democratic Party…

We went on to talk about getting together soon and that was it, but it got me thinking…

Very recently my mother told me, “Your father was a Yellow Dog Democrat…he’d vote for the devil himself if he was a Democrat.” I knew Dad was stubborn…I just thought he was a stubborn Republican.

What I realized from last night is that I’m a Yellow Dog Democrat also, and what my friend helped me realize also, is that not everyone will think in terms of “The Party”, but in terms of the two individuals running for president. So with this serious win in West Virginia, Clinton supporters have voiced their continued support for the candidate that they think will be the best.

As I listened to Clinton’s speech I heard three things…1) That she wants everyone in the country to have a chance to vote. 2) She will fully support the nominee for president…whomever that may be. 3) Lastly, and most importantly for me, she said that she thought “Our Party” can withstand this competition for the nominee.

I’ll take her at her word…and I’ll take Obama at his word…and I’ll vote Democrat in November.

p.s. Let’s go drinking soon, “C”. First one’s one me…

What’s John McCain Up to?

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From the BBC: McCain Aides quit over Burma ties (full article)

Douglas Goodyear, who had been chosen to run the 2008 Republican convention, said he was resigning “so as not to become a distraction in this campaign”.

Both Mr Goodyear and the second aide to resign this weekend, Doug Davenport, worked for the lobbying firm DCI, the former as its chief executive.

Newsweek magazine revealed on Saturday that DCI was paid more than $300,000 (£150,000) by Burma’s military leadership for lobbying work to improve its image in the US.

The BBC’s Jamie Coomarasamy in Washington says the prominent role of lobbyists in Mr McCain’s campaign was already controversial, given Mr McCain’s frequent pledges to fight against the influence of special interests in Washington.

That two of those lobbyists were linked to a special interest currently facing worldwide condemnation should give cause for reflection within Mr McCain’s inner circle, the BBC correspondent adds.

There has been international outcry over the Burmese authorities’ response to Cyclone Nargis. The US State Department has previously criticised Burma over its human rights record.

From The International Herald Tribune: McCain Allies Tout Blue Collar Strategy (full article)

An adviser to John McCain says if he takes 20 percent of the Democratic blue-collar vote nationally, he wins the presidency.

The remark by Charlie Black, quoted in The Christian Science Monitor, comes across as hasty since McCain people are also saying that once Barack Obama secures the nomination, he’ll get up to a 10-point bump in head-on-head polls. That’s a hit the Republicans acknowledge they can’t begin to absorb until September.

From Washington (AFP): Republicans Train Sights on Obama (full article)

As the Democratic primary contest heads to its climax, the Republicans are firing the opening shots of an election barrage to come against their probable White House opponent, Barack Obama.
Republican John McCain and his colleagues already see Hillary Clinton’s campaign as mortally wounded, and are busy shaping their anti-Obama offensive in terms of national security, taxes and experience.
Mitt Romney, who was beaten by McCain in the Republican nominating race, said that for all his soaring oratory, Obama could not be trusted with the world’s most powerful job.
“He has not accomplished anything during his life, in terms of legislation or leading an enterprise or making a business work or a city work or a state work,” the former Massachusetts governor told CNN.
“He really has very little experience and the presidency of the United States is not an internship,” Romney said.
The Republican Party of President George W. Bush is portraying McCain as a grizzled veteran in contrast to Obama, the 46-year-old freshman senator from Illinois.
While each pledges a respectful campaign should they wrap up their parties’ nominations, the two senators are already at each other’s throats.
McCain last week said that Hamas, through a spokesman for the militant Palestinian movement, had declared its support for an Obama presidency. “I guarantee they’re not going to endorse me,” he said.
Obama shot back at the Republican’s “smear,” which he called “offensive,” as the two waged a war of words over Iraq and which candidate was the best bet to prosecute the “war on terror” and protect Israel.
The Republican’s campaign took furious objection to Obama’s statement that with his Hamas remarks, McCain was “losing his bearings.”

“Clinton Heading for the Exit” says BBC political analyst

“Clinton heading for exit”…that’s what political analyst John Zogby says on the BBC’s website. (article here)

Too bad our news hasn’t figured it out yet. Obama now leads in delegates and the popular vote. It’s obvious to me that Obama and the Democratic party are giving time and a dignified exit to Clinton, but CNN and MSNBC just can’t let the fight die. Greedy for yet more controversy they will continue to flame this heated contest which is obviously in its end stages. I hear new delegate numbers…Florida, Michigan…not from Clinton headquarters…but from political analysts. She said it would be over June 3rd…let’s take her at her word, why?

Let the rest of the nation vote…let the primaries continue…Huckabee hasn’t hurt John McCain’s campaign. Then by popular and delegate vote Obama will be the presidential nominee. No need to scare the superdelegates into choosing the nominee, which I guess is the reason they’ve been hiding under rocks for so long. No need for “hating” Clinton for not stepping down. It’s a dignified exit and one that will help unite the party if everyone in the nation gets their vote.

I know it…you know it, the BBC knows it. Obama will win the nomination and represent the Democrats in November. 

Clinton or Obama: Up to Super Delegates to Choose now or later

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Since March I’ve given up on seeing a clear winner emerge from the primaries. Recently I’ve noticed that they virtually stay tied in everything. Since Ohio, the voters have been split down the middle, but on and on the primary season continues. The democratic party is still split and the months go by.

Uncommitted Superdelegates: 223 out of a total of 796.

There are 5 states and Puerto Rico left to vote. 274 delegates total.

Obama has 1768 total delegates. 1516 pledged. 252 Superdelegates.

Clinton has 1,622 total delegates. 1356 pledged. 266 Superdelegates.

Last night Senator Obama won North Carolina and Senator Clinton won Indiana.

Will the Superdelegates make their choice now? Why wait any longer? They’re running out of reasons and their running out of time. Do they really want to give John McCain three more months of uncontested campaigning? Do they really want threes more months of negative campaigning between the candidates? Do they own stock in CNN or MSNBC? Why wait until the convention to chose a candidate?

Vote now, like the 90% of the rest of the country already has, and like the 100% of the country has already done in their minds. Then the Democratic party will have three months to lick its self-inflicted wounds, and create a strategy for one candidate to announce a running mate at the convention. Then have another three months to run against McCain and the Republican party.

Or wait and vote at the convention and waste three months on negative campaigning and watch John McCain running uncontested. The convention will go by also, with the Democratic party fired up about what? Just finding out that three months before the election they finally have a candidate…no chance to court the other side…there’s only three months before the election.

It’s time…

Here’s a link to all the uncommitted superdelegates…Demconwatch.blogspot.com